“While president, Obama will announce support for means testing Social Security” —James Miller

Created by gwern on 2010-08-21; known on 2017-01-20; judged wrong by gwern on 2017-01-20.

• gwern estimated 20% on 2010-08-21
• Larks estimated 40% on 2010-09-29
• saturn estimated 25% on 2012-03-02
• gwern   judged this prediction wrong on 2017-01-20.
• elephantower said “when I saw this prediction (today) I was around 60% sure that it had come true. Apparently Obama wasn’t that much of a sellout :) ” on 2019-12-31