“Within five years the Israeli economy will have been devastated because many believe there is a high probability that an atomic bomb will someday be used against Israel” —James Miller

Created by gwern on 2010-08-21; known on 2015-01-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2015-01-01.

  • gwern estimated 3% on 2010-08-21
  • Larks estimated 4% on 2010-09-29
  • JoshuaZ estimated 2% on 2011-05-24
  • JoshuaZ  judged this prediction wrong on 2015-01-01.
  • JoshuaZ  judged this prediction wrong on 2015-01-01.

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