“Within ten years there will be another $200 billion+ Wall Street Bailout” —James Miller

Created by gwern on 2010-08-21; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by elephantower on 2019-12-31.

• gwern estimated 50% on 2010-08-21
• gwern said “http://lesswrong.com/lw/1la/new_years_predictions_thread/1dx6?c=1” on 2010-08-21
• Larks estimated 45% on 2010-09-29
• Ken estimated 30% on 2011-09-12
• PseudonymousUser estimated 50% on 2011-09-13
• Jayson Virissimo estimated 60% on 2011-10-10
• saturn estimated 40% on 2012-03-02
• RandomThinker estimated 65% and said “Bank on it” on 2012-03-28
• pranomostro estimated 15% on 2019-01-10
• Baeboo estimated 7% on 2019-01-11
• elephantower said “didn’t find any evidence that this happened in 15 min of research, so I’m pretty sure it didn’t” on 2019-12-31
• elephantower   judged this prediction wrong on 2019-12-31.