“Android-descended smartphones outnumber iPhone-descended smartphones” —dfranke

Created by gwern on 2010-08-23; known on 2013-12-31; judged right by gwern on 2011-01-09.

• gwern estimated 80% on 2010-08-23
• gwern said “cf. http://predictionbook.com/predictions/1608” on 2010-08-23
• gwern said “http://lesswrong.com/lw/1la/new_years_predictions_thread/1dxq?c=1” on 2010-08-23
• gwern said “may’ve been pessimistic: http://www.readwriteweb.com/archives/android_will_be_number_2_mobile_operating_system_worldwide_by_2010.php” on 2010-09-11
• gimpf estimated 99% on 2010-12-12
• gimpf estimated 95% on 2010-12-12
• gwern said “closing as correct: http://www.techspot.com/news/41896-android-passes-iphone-in-the-us.html (note about entire market, not sales)” on 2011-01-09
• gwern   judged this prediction right on 2011-01-09.