“The current lull in the increase of the speed at which CPUs perform sequential operations comes to an end, yielding a consumer CPU that performs sequential integer arithmetic operations 4x as quickly as a modern 3GHz Xeon” —dfranke

Created by gwern on 2010-08-23; known on 2013-12-31; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2013-12-31.

• gwern estimated 10% on 2010-08-23
• gwern said “I haven’t heard of anything like this anywhere on the AMD or Intel roadmaps.” on 2010-08-23
• gwern said “http://lesswrong.com/lw/1la/new_years_predictions_thread/1dxq?c=1” on 2010-08-23
• JoshuaZ estimated 5% on 2010-09-29
• kallman estimated 5% and said “Even though 3 more years is a lot…” on 2010-11-23
• PseudonymousUser said “Nope, 5-10% annual improvements in sequential performance” on 2013-12-31
• PseudonymousUser   judged this prediction wrong on 2013-12-31.