“I will continue to post on LW at least once a month…in 2020” —magfrump

Created by gwern on 2010-08-25; known on 2020-12-31; judged wrong by pranomostro on 2021-09-05.

• gwern estimated 10% on 2010-08-25
• gwern said “http://lesswrong.com/lw/1la/new_years_predictions_thread/1e7g?c=1” on 2010-08-25
• themusicgod1 estimated 4% on 2016-10-07
• pranomostro estimated 20% and said “Stopped posting last year.” on 2019-01-10
• pranomostro said “Resolves negative, posted twice in 2020.” on 2021-09-05
• pranomostro   judged this prediction wrong on 2021-09-05.