A state will try & succeed in seceding from the US. —Nancy Lebovitz

Created by gwern on 2010-08-26; known on 2020-01-01

  • gwern estimated 1% on 2010-08-26
  • gwern changed their prediction from “A state will try & succeed in seceding from the US. —Nancy Lebowitz” on 2010-08-26
  • datadataeverywhere estimated 1% on 2010-09-30
  • Anubhav estimated 0% on 2011-11-16
  • Jayson Virissimo estimated 5% on 2011-11-16
  • kilobug estimated 10% on 2011-11-18
  • muflax estimated 1% on 2011-11-18
  • najdorf estimated 1% on 2013-02-06
  • Tuxedage estimated 1% on 2013-02-07
  • hedges estimated 0% on 2013-03-22
  • btrettel estimated 1% on 2015-07-26
  • JoshuaZ estimated 0% on 2016-04-15
  • themusicgod1 estimated 12% on 2016-10-07

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