“Carry-on luggage on US airlines will be reduced to a single handbag that inspectors can search thoroughly, in 2010 or 2011.” —Phil Goetz

Created by gwern on 2010-08-26; known on 2011-12-31; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2012-01-01.

• gwern estimated 40% on 2010-08-26
• gwern said “http://lesswrong.com/lw/1la/new_years_predictions_thread/1f7k?c=1” on 2010-08-26
• PseudonymousUser estimated 20% on 2011-01-22
• Laurent Bossavit estimated 15% on 2011-09-04
• Jayson Virissimo estimated 10% on 2011-11-10
• Laurent Bossavit estimated 1% on 2011-12-14
• Jayson Virissimo estimated 0% on 2011-12-14
• PseudonymousUser   judged this prediction wrong on 2012-01-01.
• PhilGoetz said “Oops.” on 2012-03-25