Business models based on pay-per-click (as Google's) will be shown to have failed by 2012.

Created by kochikvp on 2010-08-27; known on 2012-12-16; judged wrong by Qiaochu on 2012-10-14.

• kochikvp estimated 50% on 2010-08-27
• gwern estimated 2% and said “How to judge this? Google going bankrupt?” on 2010-08-28
• kochikvp estimated 50% and said “Google’s annual AdWords revenue (now nearly $23 bil) will fall below $5bil. Google won’t die as they’re astutely diversifying revenue streams” on 2010-08-30
• gwern estimated 1% and said “OK. I don’t see that happening in under 2 years…” on 2010-08-30
• datadataeverywhere estimated 1% on 2010-09-30
• Qiaochu   judged this prediction wrong on 2012-10-14.
• Qiaochu said “Google’s AdWords revenue for 2012 appears to already be higher than this: http://investor.google.com/financial/tables.html” on 2012-10-14