Business models based on pay-per-click (as Google's) will be shown to have failed by 2012.

Created by kochikvp on 2010-08-27; known on 2012-12-16; judged wrong by Qiaochu on 2012-10-14.

  • kochikvp estimated 50% on 2010-08-27
  • gwern estimated 2% and said “How to judge this? Google going bankrupt?on 2010-08-28
  • kochikvp estimated 50% and said “Google’s annual AdWords revenue (now nearly $23 bil) will fall below $5bil. Google won’t die as they’re astutely diversifying revenue streamson 2010-08-30
  • gwern estimated 1% and said “OK. I don’t see that happening in under 2 years…on 2010-08-30
  • datadataeverywhere estimated 1% on 2010-09-30
  • Qiaochu  judged this prediction wrong on 2012-10-14.
  • Qiaochu said “Google’s AdWords revenue for 2012 appears to already be higher than this: http://investor.google.com/financial/tables.htmlon 2012-10-14

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