The proportion of the population that believes that Human-induced climate change is a reality will decline to below 50% by 2014.

Created by kochikvp on 2010-08-27; known on 2014-12-16; judged wrong by sweeneyrod on 2014-12-16.

  • kochikvp estimated 70% on 2010-08-27
  • gwern estimated 50% and said “Which population? What’s the current proportion?on 2010-08-28
  • kochikvp estimated 70% and said “NYT reports 7 Mar 2010 that a Yale-George Mason survey founds that 29 percent of Americans believe climate change is a hoax or a result of natural factors. on 2010-08-30
  • gwern estimated 30% and said “I see. That seems specific enough. BTW, you don’t need to specify your confidence every time you add a comment. Only if you want to change it.on 2010-08-30
  • kallman estimated 15% and said “Just US population? Also, the effects are only likely to become more pronounced…on 2010-11-23
  • Osuniev estimated 10% and said “assuming you talk about the US populationon 2014-08-02
  • sweeneyrod estimated 10% on 2014-12-07
  • sweeneyrod  judged this prediction wrong on 2014-12-16.

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