The proportion of the population that believes that Human-induced climate change is a reality will decline to below 50% by 2014.

Created by kochikvp on 2010-08-27; known on 2014-12-16; judged wrong by sweeneyrod on 2014-12-16.

• kochikvp estimated 70% on 2010-08-27
• gwern estimated 50% and said “Which population? What’s the current proportion?” on 2010-08-28
• kochikvp estimated 70% and said “NYT reports 7 Mar 2010 that a Yale-George Mason survey founds that 29 percent of Americans believe climate change is a hoax or a result of natural factors. ” on 2010-08-30
• gwern estimated 30% and said “I see. That seems specific enough. BTW, you don’t need to specify your confidence every time you add a comment. Only if you want to change it.” on 2010-08-30
• kallman estimated 15% and said “Just US population? Also, the effects are only likely to become more pronounced…” on 2010-11-23
• Osuniev estimated 10% and said “assuming you talk about the US population” on 2014-08-02
• sweeneyrod estimated 10% on 2014-12-07
• sweeneyrod   judged this prediction wrong on 2014-12-16.