The US Fed will increase interest rates by November 2010.

Created by kochikvp on 2010-08-27; known on 2010-11-16; judged wrong by gwern on 2010-11-16.

• kochikvp estimated 70% on 2010-08-27
• gwern estimated 30% and said “the Fed doesn’t seem inclined to do much of anything lately, and it’s not like economic news has been good.” on 2010-08-28
• gwern said “Nothing since 2008: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/History_of_Federal_Open_Market_Committee_actions#Historical_actions Marking wrong sans any contrary source” on 2010-11-16
• gwern   judged this prediction wrong on 2010-11-16.