“By December 31, 2020, synthetic solar energy (fusion) will have been shown to be a technically feasible method of electrical power generation, by an experiment demonstrating a controlled fusion reaction producing more harnessable energy than was used to

Created by gwern on 2010-08-28; known on 2020-12-31

  • gwern estimated 10% on 2010-08-28
  • gwern said “http://www.longbets.org/578on 2010-08-28
  • gwern said “The smart money is not on fusion, let us say.on 2010-08-28
  • gwern said “Hillis has registered a variation: http://www.longbets.org/605 Doesn’t seem different enough to be worth bothering recording as a separate prediction.on 2011-02-28
  • btrettel estimated 1% on 2015-09-04
  • JoshuaZ estimated 15% and said “The date is just much too soon. on 2015-09-04
  • themusicgod1 estimated 33% on 2016-10-07

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