Before 2020 organized religions will have no political influence.

Created by TheScholar on 2010-09-18; known on 2020-01-01; judged unknown by komponisto on 2010-09-29.

  • TheScholar estimated 51% on 2010-09-18
  • gwern estimated 0% on 2010-09-18
  • MrHen estimated 1% on 2010-09-23
  • JoshuaZ estimated 1% on 2010-09-29
  • NihilCredo estimated 1% on 2010-09-29
  • bbleeker estimated 100% and said “I’d be very happy to be proven wrong, though!on 2010-09-29
  • bbleeker  judged this prediction wrong on 2010-09-29.
  • komponisto  judged this prediction unknown on 2010-09-29.
  • Larks estimated 1% and said “We’re including Iran, etc. in this?on 2010-09-29
  • divide estimated 0% on 2010-09-29
  • datadataeverywhere estimated 100% on 2010-09-30
  • datadataeverywhere estimated 0% on 2010-09-30
  • Jack estimated 1% on 2010-10-10
  • jasticE estimated 0% on 2010-10-14
  • TheScholar said “@larks Yes, this includes Iran, USA, Italy, Greece, etc.on 2010-10-17
  • JoshuaZ estimated 0% and said “Updating seems extremely unlikely. TheScholar- would you be willing to make a bet on this? on 2011-05-26
  • TheScholar said “@Joshua: As you can see I’m only 51% sure? Any bet would be foolish with those odds?on 2011-07-12
  • JoshuaZ said “@Scholar, that’s not a reason not to make a bet but a reason to not make a bet at even stakes. I’m willing to make it extremely in your favor. on 2011-07-13
  • JoshuaZ said “@Scholar, We also have different predictions for prediction 1916. How about a bet where you win if either of those turns out in your favor? on 2011-07-14
  • Anubhav estimated 0% on 2011-10-12
  • Emanuel Rylke estimated 0% on 2012-04-29
  • najdorf estimated 0% on 2013-11-11
  • benwr estimated 0% on 2015-01-11
  • Unknowns estimated 0% and said “I suppose those estimating 1% are guessing at the end of the world by 2020.on 2015-03-13
  • themusicgod1 estimated 0% on 2016-05-21

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