2016 predictions: GiveWell will add a charity to their recommendations that is not on the current list (AMF, SCI, Deworm the World, GiveDirectly).

Created by EloiseRosen on 2016-01-01; known on 2016-12-31; judged right by Vipul Naik on 2016-11-29.

• EloiseRosen estimated 20% on 2016-01-01
• jessriedel estimated 35% and said “Influenced by Carl Shulman’s post: http://reflectivedisequilibrium.blogspot.com/2015/12/the-age-distribution-of-givewell.html” on 2016-01-02
• PipFoweraker estimated 15% and said “I suspect, if anything, that something addressing existential risk may make the cut.” on 2016-01-03
• EloiseRosen said “Highly unlikely. GiveWell focuses on charities w/ the most cost effective demonstrated results, which tend to be health interventions. Xrisk may still be a worthwhile cause, or even the best cause, but does not have much in the way of proven results” on 2016-01-05
• EloiseRosen said “Made a new prediction for this here: http://predictionbook.com/predictions/176612” on 2016-01-05
• JoshuaZ estimated 21% and said “Seems plausible. Agree with Eloise that existential risk would be unlikely given their methods and goals. ” on 2016-01-06
• tstelzig estimated 25% and said “Agree about existential risk. OPP maybe, but not GiveWell. ” on 2016-01-06
• Vipul Naik estimated 5% and said “GiveWell generally posts updated reviews of charities by this time + sends emails about them. None of the current standouts or other charities emailed about seems like it’ll become top.” on 2016-11-13
• Vipul Naik estimated 20% and said “Delay in putting out top charity recs suggests there may be a new top charity” on 2016-11-22
• Vipul Naik estimated 30% and said “Further increase based on delay to publishing recommendations” on 2016-11-24
• Vipul Naik   judged this prediction right on 2016-11-29.