Computers will beat the best humans at Go before 2017

Created by Houshalter on 2016-01-11; known on 2017-01-01; judged right by Houshalter on 2016-03-15.

• Houshalter estimated 50% on 2016-01-11
• splorridge estimated 40% on 2016-01-11
• timujin estimated 20% on 2016-01-11
• JoshuaZ estimated 15% on 2016-01-11
• Jach estimated 10% and said “Best bots still at least 4 stones weaker” on 2016-01-11
• danielfilan estimated 30% on 2016-01-11
• Medea estimated 10% on 2016-01-11
• Raahul_Kumar estimated 60% and said “5×5 Go was solved back in 2002. Machine will always beat Man. Come on IBM, gives us Ultraviolet Blue.” on 2016-01-11
• PseudonymousUser estimated 15% and said “From what I know, ConvNets are not nearly there yet; they play strategically but miss lots of tactics.” on 2016-01-12
• Raahul_Kumar said “Towards a Solution of 7×7 Go with Meta-MCTShttp://link.springer.com/chapter/10.1007%2F978-3-642-31866-5_8” on 2016-01-12
• lalaithion estimated 20% on 2016-01-14
• themusicgod1 estimated 49% on 2016-01-17
• themusicgod1 said “http://www.technologyreview.com/news/546066/googles-ai-masters-the-game-of-go-a-decade-earlier-than-expected/” on 2016-01-27
• Raahul_Kumar estimated 90% and said “The first time that machine has beaten professional go player, Deepmind. The machines have risen, this is the downfall of Man.http://www.deepmind.com/alpha-go.html” on 2016-01-28
• PseudonymousUser estimated 85% on 2016-01-28
• gwern said “how would we know?” on 2016-02-01
• Houshalter said “Don’t you all feel silly now XD” on 2016-02-01
• Raahul_Kumar said “We’ll know because it will be news everywhere Gwern. This is the downfall of Man.” on 2016-02-01
• PseudonymousUser estimated 40% and said “Updating based on AlphaGo. ” on 2016-02-04
• danielfilan estimated 80% on 2016-03-03
• themusicgod1 estimated 43% on 2016-03-07
• themusicgod1 said “so…did this just happen?” on 2016-03-09
• EloiseRosen said “themusicgod1: I think it should definitely count if alphago wins 3 or more of the 5, but it seems premature to consider alphago having won 1 game of 5 as “beating the best humans”.” on 2016-03-09
• EloiseRosen estimated 86% on 2016-03-09
• themusicgod1 said “That seems fair.” on 2016-03-11
• PseudonymousUser estimated 99% on 2016-03-11
• themusicgod1 said “So…this happened right?” on 2016-03-12
• PseudonymousUser estimated 100% on 2016-03-13
• PseudonymousUser estimated 100% on 2016-03-13
• PseudonymousUser estimated 100% on 2016-03-13
• Houshalter   judged this prediction right on 2016-03-15.