No terrorist attack in the in any First World country (Western Europe, US, Japan, Australia) will kill > 100 people in 2017

Created by davidmanheim on 2016-01-28; known on 2018-01-01; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2018-01-01.

• davidmanheim estimated 65% on 2016-01-28
• elephantower estimated 80% on 2016-07-15
• PseudonymousUser said “Deadline should be 2018-01-01, no?” on 2016-07-15
• themusicgod1 estimated 44% on 2016-07-15
• davidmanheim changed the deadline from “on 2017-01-01” on 2017-01-01
• gwern estimated 50% on 2017-01-01
• playablecharacter estimated 66% on 2017-01-02
• ioannes estimated 50% on 2017-01-03
• Chri estimated 40% on 2017-01-04
• Rob Bednark estimated 40% and said ““Western Europe” is nebulous. I would like to see a list of countries. ” on 2017-01-07
• equivrel estimated 60% on 2017-01-07
• two2thehead said “What rob bednark said.” on 2017-01-07
• two2thehead estimated 80% on 2017-01-21
• two2thehead said “Assuming ‘western europe’ to be countries in the EU” on 2017-01-21
• Alti Camelus estimated 80% on 2017-03-12
• Alti Camelus estimated 60% and said “I think that police have improved security at public events to avoid copycat attacks like at Nice, but I have revised down my 80% estimate because I think the new measures are untested.” on 2017-03-12
• sdr estimated 70% on 2017-03-17
• tedks estimated 55% and said “Assuming W.E. is the former non-Warsaw Pact nations plus WP nations now in the EU, and also considering New Zealand + Canada. Doesn’t seem impossible, but unlikely given mainstream tactics. Gunmen in a city could do this, esp. combined with bombs.” on 2017-10-20
• Bruno Parga   judged this prediction right on 2018-01-01.