The FBI will recommend an indictment of Hillary Clinton before the 2016 general election

Created by PseudonymousUser on 2016-01-30; known on 2016-11-09; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2016-07-05.

• PseudonymousUser estimated 80% on 2016-01-30
• PseudonymousUser said “http://www.weeklystandard.com/halperin-white-house-buzzing-about-fbi-investigation-of-hillary-clinton/article/2000819” on 2016-01-30
• JoshuaZ estimated 28% on 2016-01-30
• gwern estimated 45% on 2016-01-30
• hedges estimated 35% on 2016-01-30
• PseudonymousUser estimated 13% on 2016-01-31
• PseudonymousUser said “(In case it isn’t obvious enough, this prediction is not about whether the DoJ will actually indict.)” on 2016-01-31
• ChristianKl estimated 20% and said “It seems to me like making such a recommendation would be career suicide for any FBI official in case of a next Democratic administration. Even under a Marco Rubio administration it might be career suicide.” on 2016-02-01
• leowhiterussian estimated 50% on 2016-02-01
• bnjs estimated 30% on 2016-02-01
• PlacidPlatypus estimated 15% on 2016-02-01
• Afforess estimated 5% and said “Everyone knows lady justice isn’t blind nor impartial. Politicians only get caught when there is a victim whose sword needs falling on. Clinton is in the clear.” on 2016-02-03
• Temeraire estimated 15% on 2016-02-12
• jesselevine estimated 12% on 2016-02-13
• HonoreDB estimated 20% on 2016-02-13
• equivrel estimated 10% on 2016-02-14
• themusicgod1 estimated 49% on 2016-03-11
• Medea estimated 10% on 2016-03-21
• PseudonymousUser said “http://thehill.com/policy/national-security/274840-report-clinton-could-be-interviewed-by-fbi-within-days” on 2016-04-01
• JoshuaZ estimated 34% on 2016-04-01
• sflicht estimated 12% on 2016-06-02
• Paul.David.Carr estimated 49% on 2016-06-02
• PseudonymousUser said “http://www.cbsnews.com/news/hillary-clinton-fbi-email-investigation-election-2016/” on 2016-07-02
• PseudonymousUser   judged this prediction wrong on 2016-07-05.
• Dapple said “Technically, given the description of the prediction, there is room for this to remain unknown until the deadline. Not a participant in this prediction, so I don’t personally care, though.” on 2016-09-06