A CRISPR-edited human baby will be born by 2019

Created by gwern on 2016-02-07; known on 2020-06-01; judged right by deleteyourbrain on 2019-05-02.

• gwern estimated 60% on 2016-02-07
• JoshuaZ estimated 54% on 2016-02-07
• PseudonymousUser estimated 46% on 2016-02-08
• themusicgod1 estimated 55% on 2016-02-09
• themusicgod1 estimated 30% on 2016-03-11
• gwern estimated 55% on 2016-06-20
• pranomostro estimated 5% on 2018-09-02
• deleteyourbrain estimated 100% on 2019-04-26
• deleteyourbrain   judged this prediction right on 2019-05-02.