US will not get involved in any new major war with death toll of > 100 US soldiers. (I assume this means 100 US deaths in 2016)

Created by Temeraire on 2016-02-13; known on 2017-01-01; judged right by Temeraire on 2017-01-01.

• Temeraire estimated 92% on 2016-02-13
• Temeraire said “http://slatestarcodex.com/2016/01/25/predictions-for-2016/” on 2016-02-13
• JoshuaZ estimated 94% on 2016-02-13
• jesselevine estimated 95% on 2016-02-14
• PseudonymousUser estimated 93% on 2016-02-14
• PseudonymousUser estimated 92% on 2016-02-14
• brslvrsl estimated 95% on 2016-02-29
• themusicgod1 estimated 52% on 2016-12-19
• Temeraire   judged this prediction right on 2017-01-01.