Zika will be found not to be the (sole, proximate) cause of microencephaly for the recent cases in Brazil

Created by davidmanheim on 2016-02-17; known on 2017-01-01; judged wrong by davidmanheim on 2021-01-01.

• davidmanheim estimated 25% on 2016-02-17
• davidmanheim estimated 15% and said “The CDC has said that they are getting more and more convinced.” on 2016-02-18
• PseudonymousUser estimated 13% on 2016-02-18
• jesselevine estimated 5% and said “AFAIK the evidence is fairly clear ” on 2016-02-18
• davidmanheim estimated 2% on 2016-02-29
• brslvrsl estimated 75% on 2016-02-29
• jesselevine   judged this prediction wrong on 2016-04-13.
• jesselevine said “Confirmed link by CDC 04/13” on 2016-04-13
• davidmanheim   judged this prediction unknown on 2017-01-03.
• davidmanheim said “SOLE cause – this is still very unclear. It is definitely a proximate cause, but the data in other countries is showing a much lower rate.” on 2017-01-03
• davidmanheim said “See: https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/28039355 for reasons to think Dengue may be partially at fault.” on 2017-01-03
• davidmanheim said “https://www.nature.com/articles/s41598-020-58407-7” on 2020-11-01
• davidmanheim   judged this prediction wrong on 2021-01-01.