Ke Jie loses to AlphaGo

Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-03-11; known on 2018-01-01; judged right by themusicgod1 on 2017-01-08.

• themusicgod1 estimated 67% on 2016-03-11
• themusicgod1 said “And if, like Lee Sedol, he has a tournament-style competition, say best out of 5, this claim means AlphaGo will win best out of 5 (ie 1 game not enough unless they only play 1)” on 2016-03-11
• themusicgod1 said “https://twitter.com/badukgoweiqi2go/status/707875925925302272” on 2016-03-11
• PlacidPlatypus said “If they don’t play, is this wrong or will you withdraw?” on 2016-03-11
• themusicgod1 said “I will judge this Right. He’s put his reputation on the line, if he doesn’t play in the next year or so, I’m assuming he’s chickened out.” on 2016-03-12
• themusicgod1 said “Unless a bug is encountered in AlphaGo that makes it pointless for such a high status person to attempt to play him. Then I’ll judge it wrong.” on 2016-03-12
• PlacidPlatypus estimated 96% on 2016-03-12
• PseudonymousUser estimated 67% on 2016-03-12
• artir estimated 68% on 2016-03-12
• splorridge estimated 97% on 2016-03-12
• artir estimated 75% on 2016-03-12
• Raahul_Kumar said “AlphaGo will beat him or any other human player 5-0. No human will win even a single game against AlphaGo.” on 2016-03-12
• Raahul_Kumar estimated 100% on 2016-03-12
• PseudonymousUser estimated 95% on 2016-03-13
• Waring estimated 99% on 2016-03-13
• jesselevine said “Tbh I always thought this was some dumbass rpg video game that you all were losers but I just googled it and pretty cool ” on 2016-03-13
• ArturoGoosnargh estimated 95% on 2016-03-13
• ChristianKl estimated 95% on 2016-03-16
• Jayson Virissimo estimated 90% on 2016-03-17
• EloiseRosen estimated 86% on 2016-03-20
• ioannes estimated 95% on 2016-03-22
• mrmrpotatohead said “You need to specify if this is for a game or a match, as the probability of winning a match is a binomial distribution over the probability of winning a game, so for all non-zero/unitary probabilities, they will differ.” on 2016-03-23
• mrmrpotatohead estimated 80% and said “This is for a single game. Easy to derive Pr for a match, using the binomial distribution.” on 2016-03-23
• themusicgod1 said “* the spirit of this was intended to be for match, rather than single game * Ke Jie has agreed to play AlphaGo "before the end of the year. " http://arstechnica.com/information-technology/2016/06/google-deepmind-alphago-ke-jie-match-details/ ” on 2016-07-08
• themusicgod1 said “clafiication: if they do not play now that Ke Jie has said he will play the ball appears, at least according to wikipedia, to be in AlphaGo’s court. They must play or this claim will be judged wrong unless AlphaGo claims Ke Jie is obstructing.” on 2016-09-04
• themusicgod1   judged this prediction right on 2017-01-08.
• themusicgod1 said “https://qz.com/877721/the-ai-master-bested-the-worlds-top-go-players-and-then-revealed-itself-as-googles-alphago-in-disguise/” on 2017-01-08