Ted Cruz will be linked to a sex scandal before year end.
Created by jesselevine on 2016-04-03; known on 2017-01-01; judged wrong by two2thehead on 2017-01-01.
- jesselevine estimated 50% on 2016-04-03
- jesselevine said “Referencing the current gag order on Deborah Palfrey’s documents” on 2016-04-03
- JoshuaZ estimated 12% on 2016-04-04
- brslvrsl said “How to define sex scandal?” on 2016-04-04
- jesselevine said “Sex scandal: (noun) a sex scandal” on 2016-04-04
- PseudonymousUser estimated 10% and said “He doesn’t strike me as the type to screw up like that. (As opposed to someone like Bill Clinton, Trump, Anthony Wiener, etc.)” on 2016-04-06
- PseudonymousUser said “Jesse, does anything about the gag order relate to Cruz specifically?” on 2016-04-06
- PseudonymousUser said “Or do we only know that it “pertains to the 2016 election” (as per her attorney’s comments)?” on 2016-04-06
- jesselevine said “The reason my prediction is so drastically high is because lawyer claims release would have a dramatic impact on the race, and I can’t think of any other candidate more likely than Ted Cruz ” on 2016-04-06
- ioannes estimated 8% on 2016-04-06
- two2thehead estimated 99% and said “I know it’s bad form to rely on gut hunches on LW, but I stand by my ability to read faces. Sex scandal is defined, for me, as adultery by Ted Cruz while he was married to his wife.” on 2016-04-06
- Afforess estimated 33% on 2016-04-08
- Dapple estimated 7% and said “I don’t really anticipate any new information being added to this market by 2017, which is the only reason I expect it to default to false. ” on 2016-07-16
- two2thehead estimated 1% on 2016-07-16
- two2thehead said “Related prediction. http://predictionbook.com/predictions/178843” on 2016-07-16
- two2thehead said “I had assumed that a TC sex scandal would come out before the end of 2016. I was assuming that the republican convention would be a brokered convention that the party would choose. I then assumed that it would come out that TC committed adultery.” on 2016-07-16
- two2thehead said “No contested convention = no likelihood of TC and adultery being a topic = no likelihood of it coming out.” on 2016-07-16
- two2thehead said “I’m taking the John Edwards adultery issue being released by IIRC the same newspaper as my prior.” on 2016-07-16
- two2thehead said “I admit that it is a long shot. But I am willing to take the ‘hit’ on me being wrong as a learning lesson.” on 2016-07-16
- elephantower estimated 10% on 2016-07-17
- Michael Dickens estimated 10% on 2016-07-31
- two2thehead judged this prediction wrong on 2017-01-01.
- two2thehead said “Over confidence by me. Let the wrong judgment provide feedback for me to improve.” on 2017-01-01