Civil war in Saudi Arabia

Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-04-15; known on 2018-01-01; judged wrong by two2thehead on 2018-01-31.

• themusicgod1 estimated 58% on 2016-04-15
• Waring estimated 30% on 2016-04-18
• JoshuaZ estimated 14% on 2016-04-18
• sflicht estimated 20% on 2016-04-18
• two2thehead estimated 1% and said “I am taking a civil war to mean something akin to what happened in Syria and Libya. This is not to suggest that a civil war can’t happen. Rather that the time frame (2018-01-01) is too narrow. ” on 2016-04-20
• jesselevine estimated 0% and said “Sorry but as someone who actually understands the geopolitical situation of the Arabian peninsula” on 2016-04-20
• PlacidPlatypus estimated 2% on 2016-04-26
• themusicgod1 said “related http://predictionbook.com/predictions/177908” on 2016-07-08
• themusicgod1 said “er http://predictionbook.com/predictions/176801” on 2016-07-08
• elephantower estimated 5% and said “I could see a Shia uprising funded by Iran if, say, Saudi Arabia faces a fiscal crisis and redirects investment away from Shia areas — curious what in your understanding of the geopolitical situation around the KSA makes that impossible, Jesselevine” on 2016-07-10
• elephantower said “As opposed to merely highly improbable, of course” on 2016-07-10
• elephantower said “Geopolitics are inherently unpredictible” on 2016-07-10
• two2thehead   judged this prediction wrong on 2018-01-31.