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Either mean, median or mode truck drivers in either globally or US will make <= .027 BTC/hr or equivalent

Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-04-26; known on 2031-04-26

  • themusicgod1 estimated 58% on 2016-04-26
  • jesselevine said “This is such a difficult thing to make a prediction about, since you’re using a non-standardized and uncommon currency, one that is extremely susceptible to volatility ” on 2016-04-26
  • themusicgod1 said “on the contrary, I used bitcoin precisely because it is a standardized, long-term global unit of value. ” on 2016-04-26
  • jesselevine estimated 50% and said “Yeah. I agree but who knows what its value will be then. I’m making my prediction based on its current value. So, 2031 me, <~$12.5/hr based on the current rate. Also, I see on truck advertisements they usually pay by the mile.” on 2016-04-27
  • jesselevine said “That is, if we still even have truck drivers. Automated trucks coming to the market soon” on 2016-04-27
  • PlacidPlatypus said “Yeah even if truck drivers are making minimum wage there’s a substantial risk of this being wrong just because bitcoin has crashed.” on 2016-04-28
  • jesselevine said “HEY DONT YOU DARE TALK ABOUT BITCOIN CRASHING I INVEST IN THAT SHIT” on 2016-04-28
  • themusicgod1 said “That is true of any currency I could possibly make a claim about people using as an income source. There is no privileged reference plane here” on 2016-04-28
  • PlacidPlatypus said “Yeah but you can make some educated guesses (that is kinda what we do here). The dollar has a long track record of keeping a relatively stable value. Bitcoin… doesn’t.” on 2016-05-02
  • PlacidPlatypus said “I dunno, I guess if you really believe that Bitcoin will hold its value more stably than the dollar all I can really say is, wanna bet?” on 2016-05-02
  • themusicgod1 said “I’m already all in.” on 2016-05-02
  • elephantower estimated 65% and said “From ~10 mins of research, the median salary of truck drivers worldwide appears to be somewhere around .001 BTC, and I’d generally expect bitcoin to gain value and truckers to get paid less (b/c of automation) in 2031” on 2016-07-02
  • elephantower said “you should believe this prediction if you think it’s more likely than not that the median truck driver salary will rise less than 27-fold in bitcoin over then next 15 years” on 2016-07-02