Blue Waters built, fully online, and capable of >1 sustained petaflops

Created by gwern on 2010-09-27; known on 2012-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-01-14.

• gwern estimated 70% on 2010-09-27
• gwern said “http://www.futuretimeline.net/21stcentury/2010-2019.htm” on 2010-09-27
• gwern said “! https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Blue_Waters IBM backed out, contract taken over by Cray, not even built yet, much less running at >1 petaflops. marking wrong” on 2012-01-14
• gwern   judged this prediction wrong on 2012-01-14.