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Katie McGinty will be elected to the Senate

Created by predictit on 2016-07-20; known on 2016-11-08; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2016-11-09.

  • predictit estimated 52% on 2016-07-20
  • predictit said “This acct posts probabilities from predictit.org, to test its accuracy relative to mine (and others’), and record why I think the market is biased (if applicable). See other predictions on "predictit"’s user page and test your acumen against it too.” on 2016-07-20
  • Bruno Parga said “For context: Pennsylvania Democrat Kathleen McGinty is running against incumbent Republican Senator Pat Toomey.” on 2016-07-21
  • elephantower said “Thank you; I probably should’ve worded it as “dems will win the PA senate race” like the actual predictit site does” on 2016-07-22
  • elephantower estimated 40% and said “she’s polling 6-8 points behind Clinton” on 2016-07-22
  • elephantower said “Fetterman probably would’ve been better if he could get name recognition in time” on 2016-07-22
  • predictit estimated 60% on 2016-08-05
  • elephantower estimated 45% and said “Trump’s decline may help McGinty, bt also may lead Clinton to divert resources from PA” on 2016-08-05
  • Bruno Parga   judged this prediction wrong on 2016-11-09.