'Terabyte SD cards will be available' in 2014

Created by gwern on 2010-09-28; known on 2015-01-01; judged wrong by bobpage on 2015-01-01.

  • gwern estimated 60% on 2010-09-28
  • gwern said “http://www.futuretimeline.net/21stcentury/2010-2019.htm#terabyte-sd-cardson 2010-09-28
  • datadataeverywhere estimated 40% on 2010-09-30
  • TheScholar estimated 20% and said “Available against what price? Also… can the SD interface/protocol even handle 1 TB?on 2010-10-29
  • gimpf estimated 40% and said “Currently 64 GiB exist, SDXC can handle it, but one doubling per year… Is possible. Not probable.on 2010-12-13
  • gimpf said “BTW: 2014 means “until end of 2014”? I vote for a bit of clarification.on 2010-12-13
  • gwern said “The due date is 1 Jan 2015, since if a card were sold in a store on 31 Dec, it’s still in 2014.on 2010-12-15
  • saturn estimated 15% on 2012-03-28
  • saturn said “32GB in 2007, 64GB in 2009, 128GB announced in 2011, and still the largest as of 2012. Looks like doubling every 2 years (and possibly slowing), so I predict 1TB will not appear until 2017.on 2012-03-28
  • bobpage estimated 15% on 2012-03-28
  • Jayson Virissimo estimated 33% on 2012-04-09
  • Ben Doherty estimated 35% on 2012-04-10
  • Pablo Stafforini estimated 25% and said “256GB cards are announced for October this year. Extrapolating from this updated trend makes the prediction still unlikely, though.on 2012-10-03
  • bobpage said “Google suggests the highest capacity is 512GB: http://www.sandisk.com/products/memory-cards/sd/extremepro-sdxc-sdhc-uhs-3/on 2015-01-01
  • bobpage  judged this prediction wrong on 2015-01-01.

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