The Bay Area Rapid Transit (BART) will open its station in Warm Springs/South Fremont before April 1, 2017.

Created by Vipul Naik on 2016-11-13; known on 2017-04-02; judged right by Vipul Naik on 2017-03-25.

• Vipul Naik estimated 60% on 2016-11-13
• Vipul Naik estimated 53% and said “Downgrading this given lack of action so far (and consistent with downgrade of opening before January 1).” on 2016-12-06
• Vipul Naik estimated 55% and said “Upping estimate a little bit because of explicit announcement: http://www.eastbaytimes.com/2016/12/10/bart-says-warm-springssouth-fremont-wont-open-until-winter-2017/” on 2016-12-18
• Vipul Naik estimated 40% and said “See http://www.bizjournals.com/sanfrancisco/news/2017/01/19/extension-to-warm-springs-bart-still-months-away.html and http://www.sfchronicle.com/bayarea/article/BART-has-been-promising-an-extension-Where-is-it-10864028.php” on 2017-01-22
• Vipul Naik estimated 25% and said “Reducing probability further based on “at least 10 weeks” reported at http://www.sfchronicle.com/bayarea/article/BART-has-been-promising-an-extension-Where-is-it-10864028.php on January 18, 2017” on 2017-01-23
• Vipul Naik estimated 37% and said “mid-to-late March tentative opening date at http://abc7news.com/traffic/report-bart-staffing-empty-warm-springs-station-in-fremont/1753754/” on 2017-02-16
• ioannes estimated 33% on 2017-02-16
• Vipul Naik estimated 30% and said “No updates since one-liner from mid-February saying “mid-to-late March”, updating based on past pattern of always delaying” on 2017-03-03
• Vipul Naik estimated 55% and said “Alleged opening date March 25 http://www.sfgate.com/bayarea/article/BART-s-long-awaited-Warm-Springs-extension-to-10993146.php let’s see if it is delayed again!” on 2017-03-11
• Vipul Naik estimated 90% on 2017-03-13
• Vipul Naik estimated 95% and said “No cancellation or delay announced yet” on 2017-03-19
• Vipul Naik estimated 99% on 2017-03-23
• Vipul Naik   judged this prediction right on 2017-03-25.