Mike Flynn (Michael T. Flynn) will not be the National Security Advisor before the end of 2017.

Created by two2thehead on 2017-02-13; known on 2018-01-15; judged right by two2thehead on 2017-02-14.

• two2thehead estimated 60% on 2017-02-13
• two2thehead said “I’m trying to get better at “time limited” predictions shorter than one year. ” on 2017-02-13
• two2thehead said “The true-false criterion is whether Mike Flynn is not the National Security Advisor once. This means that if he is fired and then rehired, or retires and is rehired, or is promoted/whatever and demoted/whatever this is marked as correct.” on 2017-02-13
• two2thehead said “Twenty percent hedge downwards from eighty percent.” on 2017-02-13
• two2thehead estimated 70% and said “Tentatively going up to seventy percent.” on 2017-02-14
• two2thehead said “" Michael Flynn, Trump’s embattled national security adviser, resigns amid controversy over communication with Russian ambassador" ” on 2017-02-14
• two2thehead said “Source: https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/post-politics/wp/2017/02/13/michael-flynn-trumps-embattled-national-security-adviser-resigns-amid-controversy-over-communication-with-russian-ambassador/?utm_term=.d645fa023a27” on 2017-02-14
• two2thehead   judged this prediction right on 2017-02-14.
• two2thehead said “Well I’ll be darned. Less than 30 minutes between the updated prediction and the decision. My first assumption was to go all in instead of 70 percent. Thoughts to ponder.” on 2017-02-14