The Betelgeuse star will be observed to die within 60 years

Created by jasticE on 2010-10-14; known on 2070-12-31

  • jasticE estimated 10% on 2010-10-14
  • gwern estimated 0% and said “Red supergiants can last an awful long time.on 2010-10-14
  • JoshuaZ estimated 0% on 2011-05-24
  • JoshuaZ estimated 2% and said “Thinking about this more, reducing confidence due to the instability of Betelgeuse (especially the unexplained shrinking.) on 2011-05-26
  • jasticE estimated 5% and said “adjusting for inputon 2011-10-09
  • themusicgod1 estimated 47% on 2016-10-07
  • JoshuaZ estimated 1% on 2016-10-07

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