“Anti-fat drugs are available” in 2018

Created by gwern on 2010-10-18; known on 2019-01-01; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2022-02-19.

• gwern estimated 10% on 2010-10-18
• gwern said “http://www.futuretimeline.net/21stcentury/2010-2019.htm#fat” on 2010-10-18
• gwern said “one acronym: FDA” on 2010-10-18
• PseudonymousUser estimated 93% and said “Don’t these already exist? http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Anti-obesity_medication” on 2011-01-21
• gwern said “Hm, hard to say. orlistat (Xenical) certainly hasn’t lead to any drop in obesity rates or is responsible for an increase in longevity” on 2011-01-21
• Malgidus estimated 50% on 2013-03-27
• themusicgod1 estimated 38% on 2016-10-07
• pranomostro said “How is the status on this?” on 2019-01-09
• gwern said “I think this one may have to be withdrawn as too ill-defined. For example, the -glutides were already available in 2018.” on 2022-02-18
• Jayson Virissimo said “#drugs” on 2022-02-19
• PseudonymousUser said “Gwern: This prediction was made in 2010. Why cite something from 2018 as making it ill-defined? ” on 2022-02-19
• PseudonymousUser   judged this prediction right on 2022-02-19.
• PseudonymousUser said “Rather than let possible ulterior motive bias the judgment, I’m marking it as false now. ” on 2022-02-19
• PseudonymousUser said “As true, I mean!” on 2022-02-19