'Artificial Intelligence reaches human level. From now on there are two intelligent species on Earth.' —Arthur C. Clarke

Created by gwern on 2010-10-26; known on 2021-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2021-01-01.

• gwern estimated 2% on 2010-10-26
• gwern said “http://www.arthurcclarke.net/?scifi=3” on 2010-10-26
• gwern said “these predictions are seriously embarrassing. and they weren’t even made half a century ago, but in 2001! was clarke even trying?” on 2010-10-26
• anonym estimated 5% on 2010-11-27
• JoshuaZ estimated 10% on 2011-08-17
• themusicgod1 estimated 47% on 2016-10-07
• pranomostro estimated 2% on 2019-01-08
• PseudonymousUser estimated 0% on 2019-04-12
• Bruno Parga   judged this prediction wrong on 2021-01-01.