The summed computational powers of all computers is comparable to the total brainpower of the human race. —Ray Kurzweil

Created by gwern on 2010-10-27; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by Andrew MacFie on 2020-02-26.

• gwern estimated 60% on 2010-10-27
• gwern said “http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Predictions_made_by_Ray_Kurzweil#2020-2050” on 2010-10-27
• gwern said “There are so many datacenters and supercomputers nowadays” on 2010-10-27
• kallman estimated 70% and said “He has his nice long range – Certainly possible by the later end of the scale.” on 2010-11-22
• anonym estimated 70% on 2010-11-27
• halfwit estimated 80% on 2013-06-10
• JoshuaZ said “How does one judge this? ” on 2013-06-10
• themusicgod1 estimated 90% on 2016-04-15
• themusicgod1 estimated 9% on 2016-10-07
• pranomostro estimated 10% on 2019-01-08
• Bruno Parga said “How do we calculate the total brainpower of the human race? Each of us has, according to Wiki version of Kurzweil, a 20 PFLOPS capacity; but our coordination/parallelism seems much worse than that of computers.” on 2020-01-01
• Bruno Parga said “Wiki says the supercomputers in the TOP500 total just over 1 EFLOPS. If we naively aggregate 20 PFLOPS/person with 8bn people, that’s 160,000,000 EFLOPS. What fraction of all of mankind’s computing is performed by the 500 largest supercomputers?” on 2020-01-01
• Andrew MacFie   judged this prediction wrong on 2020-02-26.