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The New York Jets will win the Superbowl in 2011.

Created by pdaveybean on 2010-10-29; known on 2011-02-07; judged wrong by gwern on 2011-02-07.

  • pdaveybean estimated 65% on 2010-10-29
  • gwern estimated 30% and said “deadline isn’t quite right…” on 2010-10-29
  • pdaveybean changed the deadline from “on 2010-10-29” and changed their prediction from “The New York Jets will win a the Superbowl in 2011.” on 2010-10-29
  • gwern said “Jets didn’t even make it to the Superbowl! I think you fell prey to the story fallacy…” on 2011-02-07
  • gwern   judged this prediction wrong on 2011-02-07.