'Vertical farms are appearing in many cities' by 2025

Created by gwern on 2010-10-29; known on 2026-01-01; judged unknown by bobpage on 2011-10-09.

  • gwern estimated 10% on 2010-10-29
  • gwern said “not happening on a wide scale like 10% of a city’s daily consumption – where is the energy coming from??? cost-effective my arseon 2010-10-29
  • gwern said “http://www.futuretimeline.net/21stcentury/2020-2029.htm#verticalfarmson 2010-10-29
  • gwern said “background: https://secure.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/en/wiki/Vertical_farmingon 2010-10-29
  • gwern changed the deadline from “on 2025-01-01” and changed their prediction from “'Vertical farms are appearing in many cities' by 2024” on 2010-10-29
  • TheScholar estimated 1% and said “Impossible, but people have failed doing obviously impossible things before, so I’ll give it 1%. It will never work though.on 2010-10-31
  • Nic_Smith estimated 15% on 2010-11-26
  • gimpf estimated 10% on 2010-12-12
  • JoshuaZ estimated 15% and said “I’m not sure how large a scale this needs to be fulfilled. If just predicting their appearance and not that they are major then this is more likely. on 2011-05-26
  • cjb230  judged this prediction wrong on 2011-10-08.
  • bobpage  judged this prediction unknown on 2011-10-09.
  • Ben Doherty estimated 30% on 2012-04-10
  • themusicgod1 estimated 53% on 2016-10-07
  • JoshuaZ estimated 11% on 2016-10-07

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