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Jeb Bush will announce a candidacy for president in 2016

Created by gwern on 2010-11-09; known on 2016-06-01; judged right by JoshuaZ on 2016-02-08.

  • gwern estimated 30% on 2010-11-09
  • gwern said “see also 2012: http://predictionbook.com/predictions/1935” on 2010-11-09
  • Raahul_Kumar said “He did so in 2015, so this prediction is wrong. Should have said by 2016.” on 2016-02-04
  • Raahul_Kumar   judged this prediction wrong on 2016-02-04.
  • gwern said “2016 referred to the race, not when he would announce it. Since the Iowa & NH primaries start lobbying before Jan 2016, no one announces in 2016…” on 2016-02-04
  • gwern   judged this prediction right on 2016-02-04.
  • Raahul_Kumar said “The 2016 presidential campaign of Jeb Bush was formally launched on June 15, 2015, coming six months after announcing the formal exploration of a candidacy for the 2016 Republican nomination on December 16, 2014,” on 2016-02-05
  • Raahul_Kumar said “He announced his candidacy in 2014. His formal annoucement is below in 2015.http://www.politico.com/story/2015/06/jeb-bush-2016-announcement-full-text-119023” on 2016-02-05
  • PlacidPlatypus said “Pretty clear it was intended to mean his candidacy in the 2016 election, not that it would be announced in 2016” on 2016-02-05
  • Raahul_Kumar said “Candidacy for presidency means exactly that. That happened in 2014, formally in 2015. Wrong by either date. ” on 2016-02-05
  • Raahul_Kumar   judged this prediction wrong on 2016-02-05.
  • JoshuaZ said “Raahul, Gwern made the prediction, let him decide what he meant, especially because his preferred marking hurts his accuracy. ” on 2016-02-06
  • JoshuaZ   judged this prediction right on 2016-02-06.
  • gwern said “Kumar: it does not mean what you are thinking it means. You are not good at predicting, and do not tell me what I meant when I wrote it.” on 2016-02-07
  • Raahul_Kumar   judged this prediction wrong on 2016-02-08.
  • Raahul_Kumar said “You’re wrong. You are not entitled to your own reality, pyscho. Jeb Bush announced his candidacy in 2014, and he stated it formally in 2015"I am running for president.". There isn’t any ambiguity.” on 2016-02-08
  • JoshuaZ   judged this prediction right on 2016-02-08.
  • gwern said “Kumar: there is. And if you cannot abide by longstanding and basic community norms here on judging, then set up your own PB and run as you see fit. The source is on Github.” on 2016-02-08