Computers have made paper books and documents almost completely obsolete by 2020. —Ray Kurzweil

Created by gwern on 2010-11-12; known on 2020-01-01

  • gwern estimated 5% on 2010-11-12
  • gwern said “http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Predictions_made_by_Ray_Kurzweil#2019on 2010-11-12
  • gwern said “As if hundreds of millions of people will switch 100% to the Kindle or cellphoneson 2010-11-12
  • anonym estimated 20% on 2010-11-27
  • stephenh estimated 10% and said “Not by 2020. Maybe by 2030. Probably by 2050.on 2010-12-11
  • stephenh estimated 95% on 2010-12-11
  • stephenh estimated 5% and said “oops, meant 95% againston 2010-12-11
  • gimpf estimated 20% on 2010-12-12
  • JoshuaZ estimated 5% on 2011-05-24
  • Anubhav estimated 10% and said “Legacy organisations: Governments, universities… on 2011-10-12
  • muflax estimated 1% on 2011-10-26
  • Pablo Stafforini estimated 10% on 2012-10-01
  • RandomThinker estimated 5% and said “Kurzweil is always good for some bad predictions.on 2012-10-01
  • Jayson Virissimo estimated 10% on 2012-10-01
  • halfwit estimated 25% on 2013-06-10
  • a0c4a123f7 estimated 45% and said “Depends on the ease of exchanging and creating documents. With the advent of NFC I’d put the prediction much closer to parity.on 2013-06-10

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