Most human workers spend the majority of their time acquiring new skills and knowledge by 2020. —Ray Kurzweil

Created by gwern on 2010-11-12; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2020-01-01.

• gwern estimated 5% on 2010-11-12
• gwern said “http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Predictions_made_by_Ray_Kurzweil#2019” on 2010-11-12
• gwern said “the highest knowledge-based professions like programming or lawyers or doctors don’t spend most of their working time learning! even farmers in Africa?” on 2010-11-12
• kallman estimated 2% and said “Ray and his intoxicating optimism. Largish minority (30%?) even seems laughably high.” on 2010-11-20
• stephenh estimated 1% on 2010-12-11
• gimpf estimated 1% on 2010-12-12
• Emanuel Rylke estimated 1% on 2012-04-29
• JoshuaZ estimated 1% on 2012-04-29
• Jayson Virissimo estimated 0% on 2012-04-30
• Pablo estimated 1% on 2012-10-01
• halfwit estimated 1% and said “The is an absurd prediction. ” on 2013-06-10
• a0c4a123f7 estimated 1% and said “Pft, seriously? Even in first world nations and even among high-status professionals I don’t think this is likely.” on 2013-06-10
• RandomThinker said “@halfwit agree completely. I don’t know why people pay attention to Kurzweil.” on 2013-06-13
• ethaneshaw said “<br><br><a href="http://uggsoutletonline618.webs.com"> blog </a><br><br>” on 2015-11-16
• themusicgod1 estimated 22% on 2016-04-15
• pranomostro estimated 2% on 2019-01-08
• Pablo estimated 0% on 2019-12-31
• Bruno Parga   judged this prediction wrong on 2020-01-01.