“Friends of the Earth (US) will no longer be fighting against nuclear power by December 2015.” —Stewart Brand

Created by gwern on 2010-11-17; known on 2015-12-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2015-12-01.

  • gwern estimated 25% on 2010-11-17
  • gwern said “http://www.longbets.org/590on 2010-11-17
  • gwern said “Sorry, Stewart. Anti-nukes is an article of religion, not science.on 2010-11-17
  • kallman estimated 15% and said “I wish they would – if we could have fission power we’d have way less waste. Utterly destroy wherever we decide to dump it, but clean air…on 2010-11-20
  • Nic_Smith estimated 5% on 2010-11-26
  • JoshuaZ estimated 10% on 2011-01-03
  • JoshuaZ estimated 2% and said “Fukushima makes this less likely. on 2011-08-21
  • saturn estimated 6% on 2012-03-28
  • David estimated 1% on 2015-07-19
  • JoshuaZ estimated 1% on 2015-10-25
  • Raahul_Kumar estimated 0% and said “No chance, FOE is anti nuclear forever.on 2015-11-27
  • JoshuaZ  judged this prediction wrong on 2015-12-01.

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