The European Union will unite into a single super state by 2030.

Created by PatrickAchtelik on 2010-11-24; known on 2030-01-01; judged unknown by muflax on 2010-12-12.

• PatrickAchtelik estimated 80% on 2010-11-24
• gwern estimated 20% and said “This sounds way vague & unjudgeable. what is a superstate? by many standards, the EU is a state” on 2010-11-24
• kallman estimated 10% and said “Too much water under the bridge. As willing as some seem to be to forget the past, many will never forgive attrocities of a millenium ago.” on 2010-11-26
• Nic_Smith estimated 25% on 2010-11-26
• muflax   judged this prediction wrong on 2010-12-12.
• muflax   judged this prediction unknown on 2010-12-12.
• gimpf estimated 10% and said “If this means EU-wide uniform taxing (to some degree), central army, single passport, single constitution, single penal law, then no.” on 2010-12-12
• seifip estimated 40% on 2013-04-14
• themusicgod1 said “[x] central army [x] single constitution[ discussions ongoing ] – single passport. Penal law? Does the US have that?” on 2016-10-07
• pranomostro estimated 15% on 2019-01-07
• Baeboo estimated 11% on 2019-01-08
• amadeu estimated 10% on 2019-04-07
• Baeboo estimated 8% on 2020-05-27
• wizzwizz4 estimated 5% and said “There are blockers. And those aren’t insurmountable hurdles, but I don’t think anybody cares to surmount them.” on 2020-05-27
• JoshuaZ estimated 4% on 2020-05-27
• Baeboo estimated 4% on 2020-05-27
• NickN estimated 3% and said “Do all current members have to unite? Prediction was made before Brexit, would UK have to be part of that superstate?” on 2020-08-16
• amadeu estimated 3% on 2023-05-25