“[In 2036, most] Companies that are currently large, debt-laden, listed on an exchange… and paying bonuses will be gone.” – Nassim Taleb (I interpret this less literally to large cap companies as usually structured now, 2010, based on context – NS)

Created by Nic_Smith on 2010-11-28; known on 2037-01-01

• Nic_Smith estimated 20% on 2010-11-28
• Nic_Smith said “From http://www.economist.com/node/17509373” on 2010-11-28
• kallman said “Vague enough to win any way – Companies could mean “2 corporations” – more than one takeover or collapse in 25 years…” on 2010-11-28
• kallman said “(I see it as its writer covering their bases and being able to say they saw it coming to cow the stupid)” on 2010-11-28
• Nic_Smith said “Clearly not what what was meant. If there’s still an S&P 500 when 2037 rolls around, Taleb was wrong.” on 2010-11-28
• Nic_Smith changed their prediction from ““[In 2036] Companies that are currently large, debt-laden, listed on an exchange… and paying bonuses will be gone.” – Nassim Taleb (I interpret this less literally to large cap companies as usually structured now, 2010, based on context – NS)” on 2010-11-28
• gwern estimated 10% and said “How about half or more the 2010 SP 500 is bought/merged/bankrupt by 2025?” on 2010-11-28
• themusicgod1 estimated 47% on 2016-10-07
• pranomostro estimated 15% on 2019-01-08