“[In 2036, most] Companies that are currently large, debt-laden, listed on an exchange… and paying bonuses will be gone.” – Nassim Taleb (I interpret this less literally to large cap companies as usually structured now, 2010, based on context – NS)

Created by Nic_Smith on 2010-11-28; known on 2037-01-01

  • Nic_Smith estimated 20% on 2010-11-28
  • Nic_Smith said “From http://www.economist.com/node/17509373on 2010-11-28
  • kallman said “Vague enough to win any way – Companies could mean “2 corporations” – more than one takeover or collapse in 25 years…on 2010-11-28
  • kallman said “(I see it as its writer covering their bases and being able to say they saw it coming to cow the stupid)on 2010-11-28
  • Nic_Smith said “Clearly not what what was meant. If there’s still an S&P 500 when 2037 rolls around, Taleb was wrong.on 2010-11-28
  • Nic_Smith changed their prediction from ““[In 2036] Companies that are currently large, debt-laden, listed on an exchange… and paying bonuses will be gone.” – Nassim Taleb (I interpret this less literally to large cap companies as usually structured now, 2010, based on context – NS)” on 2010-11-28
  • gwern estimated 10% and said “How about half or more the 2010 SP 500 is bought/merged/bankrupt by 2025?on 2010-11-28
  • themusicgod1 estimated 47% on 2016-10-07

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