Julian Assange will not be convicted in Sweden of charges related to August 2010

Created by gwern on 2010-12-03; known on 2013-01-01; judged right by gwern on 2013-01-01.

• gwern estimated 90% on 2010-12-03
• gwern said “http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Julian_Assange#Swedish_” on 2010-12-03
• gwern said “http://rixstep.com/1/20101001,01.shtml more I read, more this smells like a frame” on 2010-12-03
• TheScholar estimated 75% and said “This is so politically and emotionally charged that it’s difficult to just assume that justice will be done.” on 2010-12-05
• stephenh estimated 75% on 2010-12-11
• gimpf estimated 60% on 2010-12-12
• Matanui2005   judged this prediction right on 2011-01-03.
• gwern   judged this prediction unknown on 2011-01-04.
• Sandra Åhlén estimated 60% on 2011-04-09
• yurifury estimated 80% on 2011-05-08
• jamesbroadhead estimated 75% on 2011-10-09
• yurifury estimated 70% on 2011-11-22
• gwern said “hasn’t been extradited, bumping out further” on 2012-01-03
• gwern changed the deadline from “on 2012-01-01” on 2012-01-03
• gwern   judged this prediction right on 2013-01-01.