HP MoR: Hermione has or will become a magical Hogwarts ghost

Created by gwern on 2013-06-30; known on 2015-06-30; judged wrong by 75th on 2015-03-16.

• gwern estimated 30% on 2013-06-30
• gwern said “context: http://www.reddit.com/r/HPMOR/comments/1hc6x6/spoiler_discussion_thread_for_ch_8889/casyk24” on 2013-06-30
• gwern said “note that this does not include the Resurrection stone, cloning, time travel, etc. Just the ordinary rooted-to-Hogwarts-by-mortal-trauma sort of ghost dating presumably to ch89’s death” on 2013-06-30
• Benja estimated 20% on 2013-06-30
• ShIxtan estimated 50% on 2013-06-30
• William-Quixote estimated 10% on 2013-07-01
• bt_uytya estimated 10% on 2013-07-01
• a0c4a123f7 estimated 10% and said “Thematically I don’t see it. Hermione gets attacked via the courts, Hermione gets killed, Hermione becomes a ghost… there are only so many times you can play with something without using up the credit.” on 2013-07-01
• holycow81 estimated 11% on 2013-07-02
• lavalamp estimated 20% on 2013-07-02
• RobertLumley estimated 10% and said “What a0c4a123f7 said.” on 2013-07-06
• ygert estimated 3% on 2013-07-07
• Petruchio estimated 13% on 2013-07-11
• 75th estimated 5% on 2013-07-13
• Gurkenglas estimated 2% on 2013-07-14
• gwern estimated 10% on 2013-07-27
• nigr estimated 10% and said “hmm” on 2013-08-15
• DEA7TH estimated 0% and said “The text at the time of her death said that her spirit went on. ” on 2014-02-28
• player_03 estimated 10% on 2014-04-26
• 75th   judged this prediction wrong on 2015-03-16.