HP MoR: the troll attack in ch88-89 was executed by Severus Snape

Created by gwern on 2013-06-30; known on 2015-06-30; judged wrong by 75th on 2015-03-03.

• gwern estimated 15% on 2013-06-30
• pkfalu92 estimated 10% on 2013-06-30
• ShIxtan estimated 10% on 2013-06-30
• William-Quixote estimated 20% on 2013-07-01
• bt_uytya estimated 10% on 2013-07-01
• ygert estimated 8% on 2013-07-01
• JoshuaZ estimated 35% on 2013-07-01
• JoshuaZ said “Additional context http://lesswrong.com/lw/huq/harry_potter_and_the_methods_of_rationality/99e0” on 2013-07-01
• holycow81 estimated 10% on 2013-07-02
• lavalamp estimated 20% on 2013-07-02
• Flailingjunk estimated 90% on 2013-07-03
• Mutasir estimated 15% on 2013-07-04
• Flailingjunk estimated 91% and said “I think I should update upwards after the last chapter, but 90% already seems high for a prediction about a work of fiction. ” on 2013-07-08
• lavalamp estimated 12% on 2013-07-09
• JoshuaZ estimated 25% and said “Updating on recent chapters. Oddly enough, unlike Flailingjunk, I see this as a reason to update to a lower probability. ” on 2013-07-09
• Bojidar Kojouharov estimated 10% on 2013-07-10
• Petruchio estimated 15% on 2013-07-11
• gwern said “Lucius Malfoy: http://predictionbook.com/predictions/20284” on 2013-07-13
• 75th estimated 5% on 2013-07-13
• 75th estimated 0% and said “Shouldn’t have even given this 5.” on 2013-07-13
• Gurkenglas estimated 15% on 2013-07-14
• azax1 estimated 5% on 2013-07-19
• nigr estimated 1% and said “quirrelmort” on 2013-08-15
• Flailingjunk estimated 10% and said “Damn it. ” on 2014-09-13
• Ham Nox estimated 4% on 2014-09-13
• 75th   judged this prediction wrong on 2015-03-03.