HP MoR: Hermione will make a Horcrux chronologically before or during the events of ch89

Created by gwern on 2013-07-01; known on 2013-09-01; judged wrong by ygert on 2015-03-23.

• gwern estimated 35% on 2013-07-01
• gwern said “context: http://lesswrong.com/r/discussion/lw/huq/harry_potter_and_the_methods_of_rationality/99h8” on 2013-07-01
• ygert estimated 10% on 2013-07-01
• JTHM estimated 80% on 2013-07-01
• lavalamp estimated 7% on 2013-07-02
• jaibot estimated 5% and said “Prior to ch 90 I thought this possible; I’m now much more dubious.” on 2013-07-02
• ShIxtan estimated 10% on 2013-07-03
• William-Quixote estimated 10% on 2013-07-12
• JoshuaZ estimated 15% on 2013-07-12
• nigr estimated 1% on 2013-08-15
• Pavitra estimated 2% on 2013-08-27
• gwern   judged this prediction wrong on 2013-09-01.
• JTHM   judged this prediction unknown on 2013-09-02.
• ygert   judged this prediction wrong on 2015-03-23.