HP MoR: the general consensus among the Wizengamot and/or the populus of magical Britain in the wake of the events of chapters 88-90 will blame Lucius Malfoy for releasing the troll in Hogwarts as a means of getting revenge on Hermione.

Created by ygert on 2013-07-02; known on 2014-02-01; judged wrong by ygert on 2014-01-02.

• ygert estimated 25% on 2013-07-02
• lavalamp estimated 15% on 2013-07-02
• gwern estimated 20% on 2013-07-03
• ygert changed the deadline from “on 2013-07-10” and changed their prediction from “In HPMOR, the general consensus among the Wizengamot and/or the populus of magical Britain in the wake of the events of chapters 88-90 will blame Lucius Malfoy for releasing the troll in Hogwarts as a means of getting revenge on Hermione.” on 2013-07-03
• JoshuaZ estimated 15% on 2013-07-03
• ShIxtan estimated 20% on 2013-07-03
• ygert estimated 20% on 2013-07-03
• ygert changed the deadline from “on 2013-07-10” on 2013-07-11
• 75th estimated 20% and said “I guess there’s a chance, but Lucius is too politically deft to let this happen.” on 2013-07-13
• azax1 estimated 15% and said “Quite likely will not be shown. We’ve only got so many chapters left.” on 2013-07-19
• Byron Johnson estimated 30% on 2013-07-21
• ygert changed the deadline from “on 2013-07-21” on 2013-07-21
• TheOriginalSoni estimated 12% on 2013-07-25
• nigr estimated 5% on 2013-08-15
• ygert changed the deadline from “on 2013-08-21” on 2013-08-23
• Osuniev estimated 10% and said “not now, with the signed contract.” on 2013-09-05
• Smaug estimated 15% on 2013-11-23
• ygert changed the deadline from “on 2013-12-22” on 2013-12-12
• 75th estimated 0% and said “Now that Harry has proclaimed his belief that the Malfoys aren’t guilty, can we safely judge this Wrong?” on 2013-12-12
• ygert said “I suppose.” on 2014-01-02
• ygert   judged this prediction wrong on 2014-01-02.