'the death toll for Americans will be higher than it was for 2010' in 2011 in Afghanistan —Capital Commentary

Created by gwern on 2011-01-01; known on 2012-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-02-05.

• gwern estimated 85% on 2011-01-01
• gwern said “http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_Forces_casualties_in_the_war_in_Afghanistan#Casualties_by_month_and_year 2010 = 575” on 2011-01-01
• gwern said “I know of no reason to be optimistic for 2011. ” on 2011-01-01
• gwern said “http://capitolcommentary.com/2011/01/01/capitol-commentary-2011-predictions/” on 2011-01-01
• gwern said “update: WP omits Nov & Dec 2011, but otherwise 2010=496 and 2011=377, not looking like this will be right, huh!” on 2012-01-14
• gwern said “nope. it was 418 in 2011, and 496 in 2010. our pessimism has failed.” on 2012-02-05
• gwern   judged this prediction wrong on 2012-02-05.