'Iran will test a nuclear weapon.' in 2011 —Capitol Commentary

Created by gwern on 2011-01-01; known on 2012-01-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2012-01-01.

• gwern estimated 5% on 2011-01-01
• gwern said “http://capitolcommentary.com/2011/01/01/capitol-commentary-2011-predictions/” on 2011-01-01
• gwern said “cf by 2014: http://predictionbook.com/predictions/1794” on 2011-01-01
• Larks estimated 40% on 2011-01-01
• Larks estimated 30% on 2011-01-01
• gwern said “Sketerpot estimates 90% against: http://lesswrong.com/lw/3kz/new_years_predictions_thread_2011/39mn” on 2011-01-07
• gimpf estimated 20% on 2011-01-09
• sketerpot   judged this prediction wrong on 2011-01-11.
• sketerpot   judged this prediction unknown on 2011-01-11.
• sketerpot estimated 10% and said “I pressed the judge button by mistake. Oops. :-(” on 2011-01-11
• Nic_Smith estimated 40% on 2011-01-12
• PseudonymousUser estimated 3% on 2011-01-21
• gwern said “intrade: currently at 4% http://www.intrade.com/v4/markets/contract/?contractId=726338 ” on 2011-08-14
• Nic_Smith estimated 5% and said “Not much time left in 2011, updating. Intrade currently at 1%.” on 2011-10-22
• PseudonymousUser estimated 1% on 2011-10-22
• PseudonymousUser   judged this prediction wrong on 2012-01-01.
• PseudonymousUser   judged this prediction wrong on 2012-01-01.