Roberts/Scalia/Thomas/Alito will resign from the Supreme Court and be replaced by a more liberal justice in 2011 —Capitol Commentary

Created by gwern on 2011-01-01; known on 2012-01-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2012-01-01.

• gwern estimated 15% on 2011-01-01
• gwern said “oldest one is scalia at 72, who is in good shape and won’t resign during obama’s term, and the process takes a while.” on 2011-01-01
• gwern said “http://capitolcommentary.com/2011/01/01/capitol-commentary-2011-predictions/” on 2011-01-01
• JoshuaZ   judged this prediction wrong on 2012-01-01.