Wikileaks will release the AES key to their insurance file in 2011

Created by gwern on 2011-01-01; known on 2012-01-01; judged wrong by bobpage on 2012-01-03.

  • gwern estimated 15% on 2011-01-01
  • gwern said “the case against Assange in England seems to be faltering, and if that fails, I don’t see any agencies stepping up for round 2 and triggering the fileon 2011-01-01
  • JoshuaZ estimated 10% on 2011-01-03
  • gimpf estimated 10% on 2011-01-09
  • fergus estimated 10% on 2011-08-18
  • bobpage said “password for the cablegate file was leaked, but this was not the insurance fileon 2012-01-03
  • bobpage  judged this prediction wrong on 2012-01-03.
  • Larklight said “10on 2012-01-03

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